I normally don’t care to comment about current events, politics or the Headline Du Jour publicly. I’ll deploy that overused and probably mis-attributed Einstein quote:
Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.
Plus, this particular site and the majority of my facebook and twitter feeds are optimized, generally for fun and nerdy things. Global health crises, partisan politics, market economics and people typing vigorously over to the top of one another regarding the kerfuffle of the day: These are all decidedly not fun, for me anyway.
But.. this blog for me acts as a record for hobby posterity and I suspect that in the same way that large-scale geological events can be sussed out from sedimentary rock layers on Earth, I think it is possible that the current Novel Coronavirus will leave its mark on our arcade and pinball hobby long after the current health crisis and related (justified or not) hysteria have passed.
At the time of this post, the Coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 and related infection COVID-19 are the headlines of every major news organization on the planet. Sure, the partisan finger pointing is in there too. American criticism of Chinese Wet Markets, thought to be the origin for the disease and all of the partisan finger pointing that have become the new normal for us here in the States. The late night comedians are having their fun with it, the financial markets are freaked out by it and people are starting to stockpile food, hand soaps, sanitizer, lysol, paper towels and toilet paper. Why toiler paper? I don’t really know..
..and somewhere, right now people are feeling real pain and loss and real fear for their loved ones in higher-risk cohorts. I wouldn’t begin to trivialize their loss or think myself immune to being touched in some way by it.
As of 3/11/2020 122,205 active known infections. 1,002 of those in the United States.
Heat maps like this, predictably always become population density maps. As of today, no known confirmed cases have arisen in my home state of Alabama but I have no doubt the virus is already in our community. Hell, my neighbors were on the Diamond Princess maybe a week before the infected passengers that were quarantine. Not everyone gets tested (most probably do not) and the tests themselves have a poor reliability record. it doesn’t help that the pollen index in our part of the south is 10.5 (out of 12) and COVID-19 early symptoms are shared with seasonal allergies.
Given these factors, I suspect that the public numbers of infected trend lower-than-actual which means the fatality estimates are probably trending higher-than-actual. But, I’m not a health expert, just someone with some BI experience looking at cold numbers with an eye for risks to accuracy.
So how does this all come back to the hobby?
Typical Crowd you might see around arcades at a Con. (This was AWS Re:Play party in Las Vegas)
As of the time of this writing, South by Southwest in Austin has been cancelled. A delay of the Summer Olympics is being considered. Near my career, Mobile World Congress in Barcelona and Google IO in May are all cancelled. Apple is internally evaluating if they will hold WWDC in June.
Shanghai Disney has been closed since January 25. Tokyo Disney closed on February 29th.
Update: 3/12/2020 - It was just announced that Disney Land will be temporarily shutting down.
Currently, Disney World hasn’t announced a closure plan but I suspect that might change as things progress.
It might seem trivial but,
When Disney closes. You should pay attention.
NBA Season has stopped. NCAA March Madness has been stopped.
International flight restrictions are increasing.
Louisville Arcade Expo just completed.
Update 3/12/2020: Texas Pinball Festival was cancelled this afternoon.
There’s Pinfest, Golden State & Rocky Mountain Expos in May, Northwest & Pintastic in June. Southern Fried Gameroom expo in July.
What impact might cancellations (voluntary or otherwise) have on our favorite Pinball & Arcade expos and the vendors that rely on them?
The answer is: Probably a lot.
SFGE 2018 Crowds
I had some interest in co-founding a gulf-coast arcade and pinball festival, so I’ve spent some time in the last few years talking with event organizers and they all tell a pretty similar story. These shows often start with a generous financial benefactor and/or sheer willpower and volunteer effort. They then grow (often modestly) year over year with this year’s ticket sales barely covering next year’s venue fees.
Show-goers have a tendency to think that these expos are giant financial successes based on anecdotal observation and attendance numbers. They are really more often made viable only through extraordinary effort year after year from the organizers. “Just enough to keep going” is the theme I often hear.
I think there is inordinate pressure on show organizers and hotels to keep the events going whenever possible. But I also predict that in the wake of a mass-spread illnesses like this will generate mounting pressure for cancellations. At this point, I consider every pinball show through summer to be iffy. Yeah, I know: serious bummer.
I urge that we all be patient with the show organizers of your favorite pinball / arcade expos in the coming weeks and months and try to be flexible. We are all in this together and we will get through it and be back to normal before you know it. :)
Update 3/12: Kaneda’s Pinball Podcast Predicts TPF will be cancelled in the first part of his podcast today.